What ULI’s “Emerging Trends 2026” Report Signals for the St. Louis Region

Date Posted: January 15, 2026

Posted In: Discussion, Ideas, Regionalism, What we are thinking about,

The Urban Land Institute and PwC’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2026 does not forecast outcomes for individual metros, but several of its findings align closely with conditions facing Midwest regions such as St. Louis—particularly around demographics, labor availability, construction costs, and the property types attracting capital.

ULI St. Louis will explore these themes locally at Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2026 on Thursday, January 29, 2026, from 7:30 to 10:00 a.m. at Powell Hall at the Jack C. Taylor Music Center. The program includes a national outlook presentation based on the report, followed by a regional panel discussion focused on St. Louis conditions. Registration link.

A central theme of the report is demographic transition. It notes that a record share of young adults are delaying household formation, with one in four now living with parents, grandparents, or roommates. While this suppresses near-term housing demand, the report describes this as pent-up demand likely to surface later as people reach their mid-30s. At the other end of the age spectrum, 2026 marks a milestone as the oldest baby boomers turn 80, a shift the report links to increased demand for alternative housing types, including rentals and group living arrangements.

Immigration Impacts on Labor

Labor availability is another dominant issue. The report ties today’s tight labor market to long-term population trends, noting that workforce entry is not keeping pace with retirements. It states that sustaining historic labor growth would require significantly higher levels of immigration, estimating that net immigration of at least 280,000 people per year through 2028 would be needed to prevent declines in the working-age population.

For construction, the report highlights regional variation. Nationally, about 30 percent of construction workers are foreign born, but reliance is highest in the South, West, and major Northeast cities. The Midwest relies more heavily on domestic labor, meaning immigration-related shocks may affect regions unevenly.

Cost Impacts of Labor/Tariffs

Cost pressure remains a defining concern. Nearly three-quarters of surveyed real estate leaders cited labor costs and availability as critical issues for 2026. The report also points to tariff-related uncertainty, noting that mid-2025 tariff increases expanded to steel, aluminum, HVAC systems, and other essential construction inputs.

On the investment side, capital is concentrating in sectors viewed as more durable. Data centers rank first nationally for investment and development prospects, followed by senior housing. Necessity-oriented retail formats, including neighborhood and community centers, also rank high.

Student housing shows strong Midwest performance. Purpose-built student housing occupancy reached 96.2 percent nationally in 2024, with Midwest campuses ranking second only to the South. At the same time, higher costs, labor constraints, and tighter financing have reduced new supply.

Overall, Emerging Trends 2026 frames the year as one shaped by structural forces rather than rapid expansion—conditions that provide important context for St. Louis-area planning and investment decisions.