PERSPECTIVE: Do We Have The Courage to Change St. Louis’ Demographic Future?
Date Posted: October 29, 2026
Posted In: Ideas, What we are thinking about,
by J.S. Onésimo “Ness” Sandoval, PhD, Professor of Sociology and Demography, Saint Louis University
There are three major demographic laws.
Demographic Law #1: Births are biological.
Demographic Law #2: Mortality is also biological. We were born, and we will all die.
Demographic Law #3: We may become domestic migrants. Most of us will move at some point in our lives, and many will move away from our birthplace.
The 1980 Census should have been a warning to our elected and business leaders. The St. Louis region did not look like its peer regions.
The business community in Charlotte recognized this demographic weakness and began heavily recruiting Latinos from Texas. Its leaders wanted Charlotte to become the banking capital of the South.
Today, Charlotte (2,938,830) is slightly larger than St. Louis (2,812,963), but its Latino population is 415,466, compared with 123,754 in St. Louis.
Swapping Places With Charlotte
If we were to transfer Charlotte’s Latino population to St. Louis, our region would rank among the top 20 metropolitan areas. It would have more recorded births and deaths, and St. Louis City would most likely have a population of more than 500,000 residents, with 20% to 25% identifying as Latino.
There would be little discussion of closing public schools in the City. There would be less demographic pressure on private schools in the suburbs, as many would likely see an increase in student population.
Unfortunately, that reality never materialized.
The Reality of Demographic Decline
The region finds itself in a different reality, one in which its largest demographic group is now experiencing natural population decline. It is a region with fewer households with children, governed by provincialism and unable to accept the blunt reality of these demographic trends.
The non-Hispanic White population in the major counties of the St. Louis region, except St. Louis City, is experiencing natural population decline.
The region has a very large Baby Boomer population that is primarily White. This mortality is coming.
This follows the natural trend of the White population in the United States, Missouri, and 42 states, all of which are experiencing natural population decline.
No Large Latino In-Migration
The Latino population never experienced large-scale inward migration to St. Louis.
St. Louis ranks 90th in Latino population. Kansas City, a much smaller region (2,271,012), ranks 44th, with 269,822 Latinos. Latinos are the second-largest demographic group in Kansas City today.
We have a good understanding of what the population will look like in 2075, based on births, deaths, and the decline in families with children.
The only questions that remain concern what international and domestic migration will look like over the next 50 years.
We have the demographic scorecard for migration from 1970 to 2025, and it is not pretty.
If you were a leader in 2075, what would you tell the leaders of today to do?
I know what I would say.
Families With Kids Needed
Families with children should be the priority, and we should recruit young adults from across the nation to become the next generation of our region.
It is time to set aside our laissez-faire attitude, take the initiative, and reimagine our future in the spirit of Charlotte, which once dreamed of becoming the banking capital of the South.
My dream is for St. Louis to experience the greatest demographic and economic turnaround in its history.
But to make that dream a reality, we must have the courage to say it clearly:
Families with children should be a priority, and we must have the courage to embrace change.
J.S. Onésimo “Ness” Sandoval, Ph.D., is a professor of sociology and demography at Saint Louis University. His research focuses on population trends, racial and ethnic demographics, migration and the changing demographic landscape of the St. Louis region.