PERSPECTIVE: Missing Families; The Hidden Cost of Fewer Births and Stagnant Domestic Migration
Date Posted: August 12, 2025
Posted In: Discussion, Ideas, Regionalism, What we are thinking about,
by Ness Sandoval
Birth rates are declining globally, nationally, and across many U.S. regions—but few places must confront this new reality as urgently as the Saint Louis region. For decades, our region has been marked by provincialism, stagnant growth, and resistance to new housing that could welcome families with children. Today, we are witnessing the consequences of those choices.
The single greatest threat to the region’s long-term demographic vitality to grown is the failure to support and retain families with children. The birth decline is not evenly distributed — it is historic in several counties. Saint Louis City, once the leader in regional birth rates, has now been surpassed by Lincoln and Warren Counties. Monroe County has seen its birth rate fall to just 4.5 per 1,000 residents—an alarming figure that signals deep demographic distress.
Meanwhile, we continue to prioritize policies that primarily benefit older adults—such as property tax freezes and opposition to family-oriented housing development—without making the necessary parallel investments in the next generation. If we fail to support families with children and do not attract new residents from outside the region, the Saint Louis MSA will be permanently shaped by population decline.
Cracks in Foundation
This is a defining moment.
We need bold, family-friendly action: investments in housing, early childhood care, quality education, and neighborhood infrastructure that create communities where young families want to live, grow, and stay.
The cracks in our foundation are widening. Among all metro areas, the 15-county Saint Louis region now ranks 58th in new housing permits. No other large or medium-sized metro is performing this poorly. If we don’t build homes, we cannot expect domestic migration to save us.
Saint Louis City sits at the epicenter of a demographic crisis. The city is on the verge of closing schools because it has lost its families with children.
We need bold, family-friendly action: investments in housing, early childhood care, quality education, and neighborhood infrastructure that create communities where young families want to live, grow, and stay.
Between 2010 and 2023, Saint Louis City lost 8,169 households with children. Since just 2019, the decline has been 5,699. If this trend continues, the number of households with children in the city will fall below 20,000 by 2028—a watershed moment.
Saint Charles is the fastest-growing county in the region, but its growth is driven primarily by households without children. Some may say, “Growth is growth,” but we must be honest about what that growth means—for schools, for community life, and for the long-term strength of our region. If the city continues to lose families, the suburbs will not be far behind.
The decline in families with children is already happening in many suburban communities. This isn’t just about numbers. It’s about values. If we truly value families with children—if we care about the next generation and believe in the future of Saint Louis—then we must act, and act boldly, with clarity, urgency, and vision.
Silence Is a Decision
Many may choose to remain silent on these issues. But silence is not neutrality—it’s a decision.
And in this case, it’s a decision not to stand with families that have children. If we want to be a region that values children, supports parents, and builds communities where the next generation can thrive, then we must speak up and act with conviction. Supporting families with children isn’t a special interest—it’s the foundation of a healthy, growing future.
Let’s not look back in 25 years and realize we stood by while the future walked away—to other metros that made space for families with children.
If we believe in One Saint Louis—a thriving, unified region—we must ensure it’s one where families with children are not just welcomed, but prioritized. Because the future of Saint Louis doesn’t begin with some abstract economic plan.
It begins at home, with a child.
Onesimo “Ness” Sandoval, is a sociologist and demographer at Saint Louis University, focused on increasing access of the general public to the data that impacts our region.